In this post I’ll elaborate on the accidents prevention by structured prediction of accidents carried out by a working team of 4 to 5 co-workers taking the account of actual near misses experienced by the group members as case studies. The structured prediction of an accident focuses on two causal causes of accident; namely unsafe conditions and unsafe acts. It is customary done through brainstorming to lead the formulation of preventive measures of an imaginary worst scenario or injuries that could result if the accident were to actually take place. The group’s mission is to reduce or entirely eliminate the risk in the job that the near accident had taken place, thus making it safe.
Below are the steps to carrying out the structured prediction of accidents.
STEP 1 – Reenacting the near or minor accident
The leader (a supervisor or the manager of the group) will start with an explanation of the case to be studied. The scenario must reflect the actual near miss that took place and experienced by the members of the group. It would be better for the leader did some home work before presenting, like taking photos or video or an accurate sketch to reenact the incident. Usually the person who experienced the near miss would also tell his/her account of the near accident. The group must be absolutely clear about the case’s scenario. The leader should ask questions to the members of the group to ensure that his team members are clear on what actually had happened. It will take about 10 minutes to complete this step.
STEP 2 – Brainstorm on worst scenario
Focusing on the 2 attributes, unsafe conditions or circumstances and unsafe acts, as mentioned earlier, the leader will start the brainstorming process of getting as much as probable causes as possible from members. All points should be presented or worded as, first is nature of injury than the event and giving the reason of whether it is due to unsafe condition or unsafe act. It is like playing the dominoes in the reverse direction. This way the group members can visualize and can make assessment of the risks of the unsafe conditions or acts.
It is vitally important for all members not to indulge in argument, as it will distract the flow of the brainstorming process. All probable causes must be recorded by the leader. To make sure that records are organized, it is proper to write the probable causes in two columns, one being unsafe conditions and the other is unsafe acts. If the brainstorming process were to be carried out effectively each column would have 10 probable causes. This step can also be competed in 20 minutes.
Some examples of the most probable causes are;
- Paralysis or serious back injury would happen due slip because of water on stairways. – unsafe condition
- Fatal accident could result due to swinging iron beam because site supervisor fails to cordon the swinging path before carrying out the work. – unsafe act
STEP 3 – Risk assessment
Ok now, the group has 10 probabilities in each column and the leader will moderate the discussion by the members to select 3 most dangerous probable causes in respective column. Having selected 3 out of 10 that are ranked as very dangerous and most imminent hazards in the work that being discussed; the leader must record in order of most risky as the top most of the list followed by the lesser ones. This step should take about 10 minutes.
STEP 4 – Formulating preventive measures and immediate implementation
For each cause that the group has thought off, they must now formulate 3 preventive measures for each cause with the aim bringing down the possibility to zero. So, the goup would have a total of 9 preventive measures. However, to implement 9 preventive measures are some what not realistic, thus it most advisable to select the top 3 measures that have most effect in preventive such recurrence of the accident. The leader has the responsibility to document the preventive measure and then forward his report to his boss and to the safety committee or the safety manager. Finally, the group will say aloud the most important measure as to mark the end of their discussion. This would take about 20 minutes.
The structured prediction method (Kiken Yochi) has allowed the Japanese organizations to move one step ahead of an unforeseen event by treating the ‘symptoms’ rather than ‘curing the disease’. Just like the old saying “prevention is better that cure”. This ‘ritual’ can be as elaborate as what I’ve written that takes about 1 hour of meeting time, but now most seasoned organizations employees are conducting the lighter version which only take about 15 to 20 minutes and are carried out daily before commencement of work.
A typical employee who has worked for 5 years and have done this ‘ritual’ daily would already developed his/her mind to be very quick to respond to any unsafe conditions and acts that he would encounter when carrying out his/her duties. His/her eyes and ears mind would always look for hazards because his/her mind is very developed and capable of identifying the dangers. Further, he/she is also accustomed to act immediately to avoid harm on to his/her body or to his/her fellow workers. He/she is said to have developed an ‘instinct’ to fight against hazards.
Below are the steps to carrying out the structured prediction of accidents.
STEP 1 – Reenacting the near or minor accident
The leader (a supervisor or the manager of the group) will start with an explanation of the case to be studied. The scenario must reflect the actual near miss that took place and experienced by the members of the group. It would be better for the leader did some home work before presenting, like taking photos or video or an accurate sketch to reenact the incident. Usually the person who experienced the near miss would also tell his/her account of the near accident. The group must be absolutely clear about the case’s scenario. The leader should ask questions to the members of the group to ensure that his team members are clear on what actually had happened. It will take about 10 minutes to complete this step.
STEP 2 – Brainstorm on worst scenario
Focusing on the 2 attributes, unsafe conditions or circumstances and unsafe acts, as mentioned earlier, the leader will start the brainstorming process of getting as much as probable causes as possible from members. All points should be presented or worded as, first is nature of injury than the event and giving the reason of whether it is due to unsafe condition or unsafe act. It is like playing the dominoes in the reverse direction. This way the group members can visualize and can make assessment of the risks of the unsafe conditions or acts.
It is vitally important for all members not to indulge in argument, as it will distract the flow of the brainstorming process. All probable causes must be recorded by the leader. To make sure that records are organized, it is proper to write the probable causes in two columns, one being unsafe conditions and the other is unsafe acts. If the brainstorming process were to be carried out effectively each column would have 10 probable causes. This step can also be competed in 20 minutes.
Some examples of the most probable causes are;
- Paralysis or serious back injury would happen due slip because of water on stairways. – unsafe condition
- Fatal accident could result due to swinging iron beam because site supervisor fails to cordon the swinging path before carrying out the work. – unsafe act
STEP 3 – Risk assessment
Ok now, the group has 10 probabilities in each column and the leader will moderate the discussion by the members to select 3 most dangerous probable causes in respective column. Having selected 3 out of 10 that are ranked as very dangerous and most imminent hazards in the work that being discussed; the leader must record in order of most risky as the top most of the list followed by the lesser ones. This step should take about 10 minutes.
STEP 4 – Formulating preventive measures and immediate implementation
For each cause that the group has thought off, they must now formulate 3 preventive measures for each cause with the aim bringing down the possibility to zero. So, the goup would have a total of 9 preventive measures. However, to implement 9 preventive measures are some what not realistic, thus it most advisable to select the top 3 measures that have most effect in preventive such recurrence of the accident. The leader has the responsibility to document the preventive measure and then forward his report to his boss and to the safety committee or the safety manager. Finally, the group will say aloud the most important measure as to mark the end of their discussion. This would take about 20 minutes.
The structured prediction method (Kiken Yochi) has allowed the Japanese organizations to move one step ahead of an unforeseen event by treating the ‘symptoms’ rather than ‘curing the disease’. Just like the old saying “prevention is better that cure”. This ‘ritual’ can be as elaborate as what I’ve written that takes about 1 hour of meeting time, but now most seasoned organizations employees are conducting the lighter version which only take about 15 to 20 minutes and are carried out daily before commencement of work.
A typical employee who has worked for 5 years and have done this ‘ritual’ daily would already developed his/her mind to be very quick to respond to any unsafe conditions and acts that he would encounter when carrying out his/her duties. His/her eyes and ears mind would always look for hazards because his/her mind is very developed and capable of identifying the dangers. Further, he/she is also accustomed to act immediately to avoid harm on to his/her body or to his/her fellow workers. He/she is said to have developed an ‘instinct’ to fight against hazards.
